Moody's (Moody's) Predictability Rank

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What is Moody's Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Moody's Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Moody's (Moody's) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Capital Markets » Moody's Corporation (NYSE:MCO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

MCO:Mexico DUT:Germany DUT:Germany MCOR34:Brazil

Address

7 World Trade Center at 250 Greenwich Street, New York, NY, USA, 10007

Website

https://www.moodys.com

Moody's, along with S&P Ratings, is a leading provider of credit ratings on fixed-income securities. The ratings segment, Moody's Investors Service, includes corporates, structured finance, financial institutions, and public finance ratings. MIS represents a majority of the firm's revenue and profits. The other segment, Moody's Analytics, consists of research, data, and analytics as well as enterprise risk solutions. RD&A's products include credit research, quantitative credit scores, economic research, business intelligence, know-your-customer tools, commercial real estate data and analytical tools, and training services. ERS includes risk-management software solutions for financial institutions.

Executives

Robert Fauber	director, officer: President and CEO	7 WORLD TRADE CENTER, 250 GREENWICH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10007
Michael L West	officer: President, Moody's Investors	7 WORLD TRADE CENTER, 250 GREENWICH ST, NEW YORK NY 10007
Richard G Steele	officer: SVP - General Counsel	C/O MOODY'S CORPORATION, 7 WORLD TRADE CENTER AT 250 GREENWICH ST, NEW YORK NY 10007
Kathryn Hill	director	7 WORLD TRADE CENTER, 250 GREENWICH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10007
Lloyd Jr Howell	director	8283 GREENSBORO DRIVE, MCLEAN VA 22102
Vincent A Forlenza	director	C/O BECTON DICKERSON & CO, 1 BECTON DR, FRANKLIN LAKES NJ 07417
Jorge A. Bermudez	director	CORPORATE LAW DEPT., CITIGROUP INC., 425 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10043
Jose Minaya	director	7 WORLD TRADE CENTER, 250 GREENWICH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10007
Saun Bruce Van	director	CITIZENS FINANCIAL GROUP, INC., 600 WASHINGTON BLVD, STAMFORD CT 06901
Leslie Seidman	director	7 WORLD TRADE CENTER, 250 GREENWICH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10007
Therese Esperdy	director	7 WORLD TRADE CENTER, 250 GREENWICH ST, NEW YORK NY 10007
Caroline Sullivan	officer: SVP - Corporate Controller	7 WORLD TRADE CENTER, 250 GREENWICH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10007
Mark Kaye	officer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer	7 WORLD TRADE CENTER, 250 GREENWICH ST, NEW YORK NY 10007
Raymond W Mcdaniel	director, officer: Executive Vice President	7 WORLD TRADE CENTER, 250 GREENWICH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10007
Stephen T Tulenko	officer: President, Moody's Analytics	7 WORLD TRADE CENTER, 250 GREENWICH ST, NEW YORK NY 10007